3 April – Special Market Update
3 April – Special Market Update
Watch Rohit Vaswani's market on the Omnis Website
(Transcrypt below)
So we've woken up to the news about tariffs.
President Trump announced that a baseline 10% tariff would be introduced on all imports from the 5th of April, and that a series of higher reciprocal rates on specific countries will take effect on the 9th. This includes 34% tariffs on all imports from China, 20% on imports from the EU, 24% from Japan and 10% here in the UK. In essence, for the US, the effective tariff rate on imports will jump to 24% if President Trump follows through with the plan. And this is assuming that 25% tariffs are included on all imports from Canada and Mexico, which were not mentioned yesterday. Now, this increase in tariff rates is likely to increase inflation in the US. It could be quite impactful, but in reality, we could expect consumers to substitute towards products that were produced domestically or to products that were produced by or imported from lower tariffs countries. Retailers could also absorb absorb some of the cost as the profit margins are currently higher than they were a decade ago.
We think these mitigating factors help to reduce the impact of tariff increases in inflation, but these tariffs are inflationary nonetheless. Nonetheless, personal consumption expenditure could also come down, especially with a drop in consumer confidence and the decline in stock prices that we are seeing. At the same time, the US economy will be impacted if businesses respond by reducing investment and if other countries retaliate forcefully, which would weigh on US exports. Both of these scenarios are look quite likely right now. Thinking about the other side of the cone, it is feasible that the revenues raised by the tariffs might then fund tax cuts in the US, and it is also reasonable to expect that the US central bank may cut interest rates further than previously expected, which would limit the damage done to the US economy. That said, this deadline of the 9th of April for kind reciprocal tariffs leaves the door open to backtracking and further delay. So this is very much a watching brief. Now let's be honest, the tariff announcements yesterday were much bigger than most investors expected and markets have reacted negative. It's currently just before 7 o'clock in the morning in the UK and Asian markets have moved sharply down and all signs point to European, UK and U.S. markets falling today too. In these kind of environments, investors move to what we call safe haven assets and we have seen bonds should typically seen as a safe haven asset hold up well since the announcement.
What does this mean for you as investors? Well firstly, remember the diversification. You will have a portfolio that has both equities and bonds in in it and whilst you can expect your portfolios to drop in value in the very short term, the bonds in your portfolios will cushion some of the blow. Secondly, remember that reacting to market events is never a good idea. It usually means you experience the losses, the losses, but do not benefit from any recovery we may see. If we think back to five years ago, 2020 during COVID, some of the best days in the year happened right after some of the worst days. And just by missing those 10 best days in the markets, you could impact your long term returns. That leads me to the need for composure in these environments.
Maintaining composure is super important. If your circumstances haven't changed, you should not react to this week's news and your financial advisor can help you understand what these market moves mean for your specific portfolio and your long term investment objectives. And lastly, patience. Markets will always go through turbulent times in the short term, but in the long term markets always recover. So think about and focus on your long term goals and not on the short term market impact over the next.
AI disruption concerns again dominate global markets, with the US subsequently lagging global peers. Japan was the standout performer with stocks rallying strongly on the Liberal Democratic Party achieving a supermajority. Last week’s performance – major stock markets
1. Jan-25 : The FTSE 100 hit a record high as UK inflation fell to 2.5%, raising hopes for interest rate cuts. Meanwhile, as Trump raised tariffs on Mexico, China and Canada, markets grew cautious over how tariffs might impact inflation and economic growth. China continues to experience weak domestic demand. 2. Feb-25: Global markets diverged as trade tensions hit sentiment, while strong earnings fuelled gains elsewhere. US stocks fell amid tariff uncertainty and weakening consumer demand. Trump warned of a 25% tariff on EU imports and possible UK taxes, confirmed duties on Canadian and Mexican goods, and threatened an extra 10% on Chinese imports. 3. Mar-25: Global stock markets came under pressure amid growing concerns about the economic impact of President Donald Trump’s tariffs. Stock market falls, trade tensions and weakening consumer sentiment, reignited US downturn fears. The EU responded to Trump’s 25% tariffs on steel and aluminium with duties on €26 billion worth of American goods. 4. Apr-25: Trade tensions intensified as President Trump announced new tariffs on Chinese imports. Whilst stock markets tumbled, they did subsequently recover after the US paused most tariff increases. As a result, the global economic outlook has weakened, and investors are expecting central banks to cut interest rates further. 5. May-25: Global equity markets rallied strongly after the US and China agreed to a 90-day suspension (and reduction) of tariffs. This eased concerns of an escalating trade war between the two economic superpowers. Robust corporate earnings and better-than-expected retail and manufacturing data in the US provided further tailwinds for equity markets, however, analysts warned the full economic impact may still be felt. 6. June-25: Geopolitical tensions rose following an escalation in the Israel-Iran conflict; however, markets were happy to look through the noise, following the announcement of a ceasefire between the two countries. Global equities extended their gains from May, rallying strongly on expectations of additional trade deals and further interest rate cuts globally. 7. July-25: Global equities rallied strongly on optimism surrounding trade deals between the US and many of its key trading partners. Several indices hit record highs for the month, shrugging off concerns surrounding the potential inflationary impact of tariff implementation. 8. Aug-25: Global equities extended their rally in August, as the likelihood for near-term interest rate cuts in the US increased and second quarter earnings season delivered robust results. Several indices once again set new all-time highs, while Chinese equities rallied 10% for the month boosted by strong domestic buying. 9. Sep-25: Global equities rose in September following the announcement that the Federal Reserve recommenced cutting interest rates. Markets reacted favourably to commentary from Federal Reserve officials that further interest rate cuts are likely in the months ahead. 10. Oct-25: Several indices hit all-time highs in October, including the S&P 500, Japan’s Nikkei 225, the Euro Stoxx 50 and the UK’s FTSE 100. A combination of easing monetary policy, resilient economic growth, cooling trade tensions and strong corporate earnings saw global equities continue their march higher. 11. Nov-25: In November, volatility spiked to its highest level since April, driven by concerns over elevated tech stock valuations and a diminishing likelihood of a U.S. rate cut in December. Stocks rallied into the end of the month, as commentary from Federal Reserve members signalled a December rate cut was still on the cards, while corporate earnings continued to exceed expectations. 12. Dec-25: Global equities performed strongly in December, driven by resilient economic growth, AI tailwinds and a backdrop of falling interest rates. The U.S. was the exception, as it pulled back on valuation concerns. The Bank of England and U.S. Federal Reserve each cut interest rates by 0.25 percentage points during the month, while Japan raised rates by 0.25 percentage points to their highest level in 3 decades. If you are invested in a range of funds within your portfolio these are likely to be spread across different regions of the world and, depending on your attitude to risk, a range of different assets. This diversification reduces the impact on performance of any individual event like the coronavirus crisis. We take a long-term approach to investing, and we do not let short-term events force us into making decisions about how we manage your portfolio.
At first glance, things like coffee and chocolate might not seem to have much to do with mortgages. But as you might have noticed, both have become noticeably more expensive in recent months. Don’t worry, this isn’t another lecture about skipping your morning latte or Starbucks trip to save for your house deposit. Instead it’s a call to look behind those higher prices where you’ll find a bigger story about inflation, which has a direct impact on the mortgage deals available to you. From everyday treats to global markets Coffee beans and cocoa are traded on international markets, and their prices are influenced by factors like climate change, crop yields, transport costs and global demand. When supplies are disrupted, as has happened recently with poor harvests in key producing countries, prices rise sharply. For consumers, that means higher costs at the supermarket or coffee shop. The link to inflation When everyday goods like food, energy and raw materials go up in price, it feeds into inflation – the measure of how fast the cost of living is increasing. Food prices, in particular, remain one of the biggest contributors to overall inflation. Higher inflation puts pressure on the Bank of England to act, since one of its main roles is to keep inflation close to its 2% target. Why this matters for mortgages When inflation is high or expected to rise, the financial markets anticipate that the Bank of England will hold interest rates higher for longer. This expectation pushes up “swap rates” - the rates at which banks lend to each other. Swap rates play a big part in determining the cost of fixed-rate mortgages, so if they climb, so does the cost for lenders to borrow money. This means they are less able to offer cheaper deals. In other words, the higher cost of your flat-white or favourite chocolate bar can ripple through the economy and ultimately influence the rate you are offered on your next mortgage. What you can do The good news is that while global markets are outside our control, you can prepare for what’s happening closer to home. If your fixed rate is coming to an end, speaking to an adviser early can help you secure a new deal in advance and avoid being moved onto a higher Standard Variable Rate (SVR). An adviser can also guide you through all your options, whether you’re set to remortgage or looking to buy. One of the key benefits of using an adviser for this process is that they have a much wider choice of mortgage options available to them – compared to your bank or even your own online search. This means you can be reassured that you’re accessing competitive options that are best suited your needs and circumstances. Coffee and chocolate may be everyday luxuries, but their rising costs are a reminder of how interconnected our finances really are. Understanding those links, and planning ahead, is the best way to stay one step ahead of changes in the mortgage market. YOUR HOME MAY BE REPOSESSED IF YOU DO NOT KEEP UP REPAYMENTS ON YOUR MORTGAGE
In the hustle and bustle of daily life, it's easy to overlook the importance of protecting our financial security both for now and in the future. We work hard to build a comfortable life for ourselves and our loved ones, but what happens if the unexpected happens and we become too ill to work. How can we ensure that our security today and our financial legacy remains intact for the next generation? One of the most effective ways to protect our wealth is by incorporating income protection and critical illness cover into our financial planning. These two insurance options provide a safety net during challenging times, offering financial support when we need it most. Together, these two types of insurance complement each other to offer comprehensive financial protection: · Income protection provides ongoing financial support during periods of incapacity, ensuring you have a reliable source of income to sustain your lifestyle and your financial plans · Critical illness cover offers a lump sum payment upon diagnosis of a specified serious illness, providing a financial cushion to take a huge weight off your mind at a difficult time. By combining income protection and critical illness cover, you can protect your wealth, protect your lifestyle and protect your financial legacy in the face of unexpected health challenges. · Maintaining your lifestyle Both income protection and critical illness cover can help you continue your lifestyle by providing financial support. Whether it's paying the mortgage, paying bills, continuing your pension and investment contributions, these insurance options offer flexibility, security and peace of mind. · Preserving your savings and investments You won't need to dip into your savings, sell investments or reduce your pension contributions to maintain the lifestyle you're accustomed to and are planning for. With income protection in place, you'll have a reliable source of income to cover your expenses during times of illness or injury. This means you can preserve your savings for future goals and emergencies, without the worry of depleting them. · Protecting your legacy By safeguarding your financial stability, income protection and critical illness cover can ensure that your wealth remains intact for future generations. You can pass on your assets and provide for your loved ones without worrying about unforeseen financial setbacks. Incorporating income protection and critical illness cover into your financial planning strategy is a proactive step towards protecting your financial legacy for the future. Speak to us to secure your financial well-being for now and for generations to come. Call Planguard Finance on 01455 817477 or drop them an email on clientservices@planguardfinance.co.uk
Do you have a family who rely on your income? Get covered for sickness, injuries, life cover & more. DM me for advice. 01455 817477 clientservices@planguardfinance.co.uk Planguard Finance is an appointed representative of The Openwork Partnership, a trading style of Openwork Limited which is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority.
Self-employed? Taking time off work if you’re sick can be worry. DM me for advice on income protection and other options. Planguard Finance is an appointed representative of The Openwork Partnership, a trading style of Openwork Limited which is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority.
A strong week for global equities, as favourable economic data supported risk-on sentiment. Japanese equities led the way, rallying strongly following the announcement of Sanae Takaichi as new Prime Minister.
The mortgage market is shifting. Following several cuts to the Bank of England base rate - including a 0.25% cut to 4% in August - tracker mortgages are once again on the radar for borrowers remortgaging in 2025. These rate moves make trackers more appealing, but how do they stack up against other options? Why tracker mortgages matter now - A tracker mortgage mirrors the Bank of England’s base rate plus a fixed margin. This means your monthly payments go down if rates fall and rise if rates go up. - This is different to a fixed rate mortgage where you will pay the same amount each month for a set period - typically two or five years, but with longer fixes also available. - If interest rates change so does the rate on your tracker mortgage, expectations are that interest rates will continue to decrease, which could make a tracker mortgage an attractive option for some borrowers. In fact, Andrew Bailey, the Governor of the Bank of England, recently told the House of Lords Economic Affairs Committee that “the path of [interest] rates is still downwards”. - Following the recent base rate cut in August, some experts are predicting further cuts later in the year and perhaps further movement into 2026. - However, the Governor has long stated that any future movement will need to be made gradually and carefully and is heavily reliant on a number of key factors such as inflation, the UK economy and any external geopolitical shocks. - While these factors remain very hard to predict, those who have the means and confidence to ride the wave of future interest rates are exploring tracker rate mortgages. But fixes remain strong too - That said, fixed-rate mortgages do remain very competitive and in some cases are more affordable than trackers – at least in the short term. According to Moneyfacts, average mortgage rates on both two-year and five-year fixed rate products sit at around 5%, with sub-4% rates available on some mortgages for qualifying borrowers. - Fixed rates offer predictable payments and peace of mind, which is especially helpful when budgeting in uncertain times. While you may not reap the benefits of a drop in interest rates, you will always know how much you’re paying and to many borrowers, that is more powerful than any potential saving. Which might suit you best? - Choose a tracker mortgage if you’re comfortable with potential fluctuations and want to benefit immediately from any further base rate cuts. - Opt for a fixed-rate mortgage if your focus is on stability and knowing exactly what your mortgage will cost, regardless of rate movements. - Discuss whether discount variable options might suit your situation, especially if you’re unsure how long you’ll stay in your home. Get advice before you decide - The right choice depends on your personal situation, risk appetite, and future plans. A mortgage adviser can explain the differences clearly, help you weigh tracker benefits against fixed-rate certainty, and guide you toward a solution that best fits your needs. - Is your fixed term ending soon? We can help you compare your options and choose with confidence. To book your appointment with a mortgage adviser, please get in touch here (email address and phone number). YOUR HOME MAY BE REPOSSESSED IF YOU DO NOT KEEP UP REPAYMENTS ON YOUR MORTGAGE.